About a month ago, we asked our weather provider about summer trends. If July had been more accurately forecast to be “rotten”, seasonal trends or forecasts would have projected a scenario with a good improvement since the end of July, in a more lasting way, extending a good part of August.
Unfortunately, these “seasonal” forecasts are constantly being updated, and we have to acknowledge that the last we received was not coming, but not really, to confirm a month ago. Evidence if there is any “weakness” to the reliability of such forecasts.
We are going to invite you to go together for the most recent overview for the month of August, first based on the temperature and then the expected amount of rainfall.
Most of the temperature in August is deficient
The charts you see indicate a weekly temperature forecast. The forecast does not say exactly what temperature it will be, but it is always a sign of what is called “seasonal conditions”. So, on the temperature charts, you see the myth above: it was dark, and it differed from the benchmark values. Conversely, if it is orange or red, it means an irregularity, but this time upwards.
Week of August 02: 08: The way is very cold
This can be seen in the temperature map from August 2 to August 8, which is the lowest temperature throughout Western Europe, from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia. In Belgium, the difference averages about two degrees. Only southern Italy and Greece are expected to be warmer than the first week of August.
Week of August 09 to 15: Still below average
Small change in the second week of August, the deficit here is only a degree compared to normal “.” On the other hand, we note again that all of Western Europe except Greece will be new again or at the same “normal” values as in Spain.
Week of August 15th to 22nd : It continues …
Although the temperature deficit is marked as low, it can be as low as one degree. For information, the average in Brussels is close to 21 C.
Week 22 to 29 August: Almost normal
Week 22-29 should be very close to normal and in any case less than a degree from them. No heat wave in sight, but slightly milder results for August. So, in the end, if these predictions come true, we should see the month of August.
Rain in quality
If the temperature appears to be below seasonal values, the rainfall should not be too high. Be careful, this does not mean that local and high rainfall events are not possible. Here again, it is important to remember that these are overall forecasts based on meteorology that are far from the current weather.
The first week it still rained
The weeks of August 2 to 08 recommend 5 to 10 liters of water per m² in addition to the norm in the north of the country and 10 to 20 liters of water per m² in the south. Again, this is an average but it does not need to be guaranteed.
Then return to normal rain
The following two weeks will be completely within seasonal values. You should know that the normal month of August gives 79 liters per m² in the eucalyptus, thus not exempting us from the rain, but we are “within the norm”. Last week may be slightly above the definitions, but still very close.
Conclusion: What about seasonal forecasts?
These predictions, released at the end of July for the month of August, offer great reliability. But, as we pointed out at the beginning of the article, the forecasts for a month have changed a lot. During this two-month period, we are already losing credibility.
Another event that illustrates these “course changes” in forecasts is the particular situation we will experience this year, especially with “non-standard” air masses. To this must be added the abundant and unusual cold drops which have considerably disturbed the whole atmospheric circulation throughout Western Europe.
Appointment within a month to see if these predictions are reliable. The Augustans won’t be letting a Priory out of their game this summer, let alone “well rotten”.